AUCN Data: How Much Value a Car Keeps at Every Age

Everyone knows cars lose value — almost nobody can put a number on the curve. Using AUCN's own market listing data, here is what the average vehicle actually keeps, year by year.

The residual-value curve

The first years hurt most

The curve is steepest at the front. Measured against the newest model year as 100%, a three-year-old car sits at 79.5% — a fall of roughly 20 points, or about 7 points a year. From there the decline settles to around 5–6 points a year through to year 12, easing to roughly 5 points a year by year 15.

That is the practical meaning of depreciation: the buyer of a three-year-old car has already absorbed the steepest part of the drop, while a brand-new car is about to.

It also explains why the national fleet keeps getting older. The ABS Motor Vehicle Census puts the average age of Australian vehicles at 10.6 years, with Tasmania the oldest at 13.3 years — a fleet that reflects buyers chasing the flat part of this curve.

The kilometres that come with the age

Price is only half the picture — the other half is distance. Across AUCN's market data, advertised vehicles average roughly 12,000 to 13,000 km for every year of age:

Use it as a benchmark rather than a rule:

• Well below the benchmark for its age — either a genuine low-kilometre car, or a reading that needs service records to support it. Low kilometres are one of the most common reasons an odometer anomaly shows up.
• Around the benchmark — normal use; expect wear items to have been replaced on schedule.
• Well above it — price it in, and check what major services are due next. High-kilometre cars are not bad cars, but they are cheaper cars, and the curve already reflects that.

One caveat worth knowing: older cars still listed for sale have survived, so the average kilometres per year of the very oldest vehicles understate how much the scrapped ones travelled.

Fuel type changes the picture

• Electric vehicles list at more than double the price of a typical petrol car — mostly because in-market EVs are late-model with low kilometres.
• Hybrids price close to premium-petrol cars, with running-cost savings built into demand. The Green Vehicle Guide is the official tool for comparing fuel consumption and CO2 between specific models.
• Diesel sits high mainly because utes and large SUVs dominate the diesel pool, not because diesel itself commands a premium.

Which brands actually hold their value

The market-wide curve hides a big spread between brands. Comparing what a 2019-model vehicle sells for today against the average price of the same brand's 2025 model gives a six-year retention figure:

What the ranking says:

• Mainstream Japanese brands lead. Subaru, Suzuki, Mazda and Toyota all sit above 60%, which is exactly the pattern long-term buyers care about.
• Mercedes-Benz holds better than its German rivals in this data (63.7%), while BMW (52.5%) and Audi (51.3%) sit well below it. Model mix — large SUVs versus small passenger cars — explains part of the gap.
• Land Rover is the weakest in the sample at 45.6%, followed by MG (48.6%).
• Kia at 52.6% runs below the popular narrative that Korean brands now hold value as well as Japanese ones — at least across the full model mix.

You can read more about brand-level value patterns in our guide to which car brands hold value best.

If you are buying

1. Buy in the 3–7-year window if you want maximum value per dollar — the steep drop is done, but the car is still modern.
2. Compare like with like. An EV and a petrol car at the same price are at very different points in their lives.
3. Use the residual number as an anchor, then adjust down for missing service history and up for full records — and check safety ratings before you fall in love with a model.
4. Factor in the four risk flags. A car with finance owing or a write-off history is worth materially less than the curve suggests.

If you are selling or trading in

• Sell before year three or after year eight. The steepest part of the curve is not the best time to be a seller.
• Document condition and service history. Both move you above the average line — the whole curve is an average of cars that are better and worse than yours.
• Price against live comparables, then hold firm where your records are stronger than the next car's.

The bottom line

Depreciation is not mysterious. Roughly 14 points disappear in the first three years, then 4–6 points a year after that, until condition matters more than age. Buying on the flatter part of the curve is the single most reliable way to make your money last longer.

Related AUCN data

• Nearly 1 in 4 used cars carry a risk flag
• Which brands still have finance owing
• Which car brands hold value best

Sources

• ABS — Motor Vehicle Census, Australia
• Green Vehicle Guide (Australian Government)
• ANCAP — Safety ratings explained

About this data: AUCN Data, percentage basis, based on AUCN market listing data as of September 2026. Values are market-wide averages across models, body types and conditions; a specific vehicle will differ from the average. Aggregated figures only; no individual vehicles or sellers are published. See the AUCN Data methodology and definitions for how these figures are produced.